3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Brandon Parker as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #101 (range #84-#118, wide band). Bust probability sits at 8% — low. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #101 sits within 2 spots of the room's #98 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 8% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Greg Senat as a mid-round flyer at #139 (range #118-#160, wide band). Bust probability sits at 15% — low. Drafted #212 by BAL in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 101 spots ahead of the room (board #139 vs consensus #240), and at a 15% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Geron Christian as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #82 (range #59-#105, wide band). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Jerald Hawkins, Caleb Benenoch, Jamon Brown. Ceiling is Rob Havenstein; floor is Caleb Benenoch. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #82 sits within 9 spots of the room's #73 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 6% bust probability break ties on draft day.