2 prospects · 2018 draft
Decisive factor: 89-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Marcell Harris (age 21.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #175 (range #135-#215, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Gerod Holliman, Kyshoen Jarrett (Bust), Jordan Richards (Contributor). Ceiling is Jordan Richards (Contributor); floor is Gerod Holliman. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Kyshoen Jarrett, Mykkele Thompson, James Sample. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 158 spots ahead of the room (board #175 vs consensus #333), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Armani Watts (age 22.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #86 (range #32-#140, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Karl Joseph (Starter), Deon Bush (Contributor), Jayron Kearse (Backup). Ceiling is Karl Joseph (Starter); floor is Jayron Kearse (Backup). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Jayron Kearse, Kyshoen Jarrett. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #86 sits within 2 spots of the room's #84 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.