3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Keke Coutee (age 21.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #173 (range #130-#216, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Daniel Braverman (Bust), Rashard Higgins (Starter), Chris Moore (Contributor). Ceiling is Jaelen Strong (Franchise); floor is Chris Moore (Contributor). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Daniel Braverman, Demarcus Ayers. Mixed signal from history. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #105 and the model won't take him before #173 — a 68-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Cedrick Wilson Jr. (age 22.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #160 (range #103-#217, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Daniel Braverman (Bust), Rashard Higgins (Starter), Jaelen Strong (Franchise). Ceiling is Nelson Agholor (Franchise); floor is Rashard Higgins (Starter). Drafted #208 by DAL in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #116 and the model won't take him before #160 — a 44-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Michael Gallup (age 22.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #69 (range #29-#109, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Daniel Braverman (Bust), Jaelen Strong (Franchise), Rashard Higgins (Starter). Ceiling is Jaelen Strong (Franchise); floor is Mike Thomas (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a value lean: #69 against a consensus #91 is a 22-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.