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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2018 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2018 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
KJ
Kerryon Johnson
RB · Auburn
20.8 yo · 5'11" · 213 lb
DG
Derrius Guice
RB · LSU
20.9 yo · 5'10" · 224 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Derrius Guice over Kerryon Johnson.

Decisive factor: 40-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 20 points lower and $9M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Kerryon Johnson
Predicted pick
#41
range #15–#145
Bust probability
32%
Consensus rank
#57
on 17 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Derrius Guice
Predicted pick
#1
range #4–#52
Bust probability
13%
Consensus rank
#13
on 26 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$12Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Kerryon Johnson· RB / WR / TE
  • Derrius Guice· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionKerryon Johnson47
  • AthleticismKerryon Johnson47
  • AgeKerryon Johnson73
  • ConsensusDerrius Guice93
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Kerryon Johnson50
  • Breakout ageKerryon Johnson50
  • WorkloadKerryon Johnson100
  • RAS × productionKerryon Johnson0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Kerryon Johnson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Derrius Guice
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Kerryon Johnson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Derrius Guice
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Kerryon JohnsonDerrius Guice· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Kerryon Johnson

−0.05 production trajectory; +0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.03 number of boards ranking him

Derrius Guice

+0.09 boards with him top-100; +0.07 scout consensus; +0.04 boards with him top-50