2 prospects · 2018 draft
Decisive factor: a bust risk 65 points lower. Reinforced by 69-pick gap on Draftanomics projection and $12M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Kentavius Street (age 22.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #211 (range #191-#231, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Hassan Ridgeway (Starter), Jonathan Bullard (Starter), Sheldon Day (Starter). Ceiling is Maliek Collins (Starter); floor is Matthew Ioannidis (Starter). Drafted #128 by SFO in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #116 and the model won't take him before #211 — a 95-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Justin Jones (age 21.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #142 (range #115-#169, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Matthew Ioannidis (Starter), Maliek Collins (Starter), Hassan Ridgeway (Starter). Ceiling is Darius Philon (Franchise); floor is Matthew Ioannidis (Starter). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 18 spots below the room's consensus #124 — don't pay sticker price. The 18-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.