Refreshed just now
rank#142$1.1M
Limited public-board coverage (1 board) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Justin Jones at pick #142; he was actually picked #84 by LAC. 7 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 8.4 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $6.0M a year. The 4-tier model gives him a 31% chance at an elite career. NFL grades have been modest so far (6% recent-3, 16% peak across 7 seasons). Model predicted $15M/yr; actual $6M (over by $9M).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#142DT·North Carolina St.
The league moved faster than our board — LAC took him at No. 84, 58 picks ahead of our No. 142 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Justin Jones at #142 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and LAC took him at No. 84, 58 picks earlier than our grade. The model's case leans on his age curve. Bust risk projects at 20%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #162 pre-draft; our board was 20 spots higher.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production7
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports