3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Greg Senat as a mid-round flyer at #139 (range #118-#160, wide band). Bust probability sits at 76% — scary. Drafted #212 by BAL in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 101 spots ahead of the room (board #139 vs consensus #240) — but size the bet for the 76% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Brandon Parker as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #101 (range #84-#118, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #101 sits within 2 spots of the room's #98 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Jordan Mailata as a mid-round flyer at #144 (range #119-#169, wide band). Bust probability sits at 78% — scary. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #144 stands alone — and with bust risk at 78%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.