3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Tyler Conklin (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #247 (range #242-#252, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: David Morgan (Bust), Malcolm Johnson (Starter), Temarrick Hemingway (Bust). Ceiling is Nick Boyle (Starter); floor is Jerell Adams (Contributor). 40-yard dash of 4.80s — below-average separation speed for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #122 and the model won't take him before #247 — a 126-spot markdown. The discount is earned — te slow 40 (4.80s) leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jaylen Samuels (age 21.8 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #126 (range #115-#137, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Jerell Adams (Contributor), Jesse James (Franchise), Temarrick Hemingway (Bust). Ceiling is Jesse James (Franchise); floor is Jerell Adams (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #89 and the model won't take him before #126 — a 37-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jordan Thomas (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #240 (range #233-#247, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 76 spots ahead of the room (board #240 vs consensus #316), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.