Refreshed just now
2016 NFL Draft prospect
David Morgan
age 22.9 · 6'4" · 262 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 60% and the realistic range is No. 94 to No. 246.
American Athletic→ MIN's 2016 class
Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded David Morgan at pick #231; he was actually picked #188 by MIN. 1 NFL season in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 6.1 of 20 per season), and the second-contract question is still open — no new deal yet. Model expects a second-deal AAV around $5M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#231TE·Texas-San Antonio
The league moved faster than our board — MIN took him at No. 188, 43 picks ahead of our No. 231 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk5
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports