3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Anthony Averett (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #217 (range #159-#275, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 24% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Prince Charles Iworah (Bust), Blake Countess (Contributor), Trae Waynes (Starter). Ceiling is Trae Waynes (Starter); floor is Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Prince Charles Iworah, Zack Sanchez. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #94 and the model won't take him before #217 — a 123-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Carlton Davis (age 21.3 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #45 (range #17-#73, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 7% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Eli Apple (Starter), Zack Sanchez (Bust), Kendall Fuller (Starter). Ceiling is Eli Apple (Starter); floor is KeiVarae Russell (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #45 sits within 7 spots of the room's #52 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 7% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Donte Jackson (age 22.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #112 (range #84-#140, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kendall Fuller (Starter), Eli Apple (Starter), Zack Sanchez (Bust). Ceiling is Eli Apple (Starter); floor is KeiVarae Russell (Contributor). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #57 and the model won't take him before #112 — a 55-spot markdown. The 55-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.