2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: 31-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by $8M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Treyvon Hester (age 24.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #223 (range #191-#255, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Deon Simon (Bust), Darius Kilgo (Starter), Xavier Cooper (Franchise). Ceiling is Xavier Cooper (Franchise); floor is Darius Kilgo (Starter). School SP+ 12.3 (MID-AMERICAN). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. Age 24.6 at draft. Players entering the league past 24 hit fewer career milestones — the developmental window is already compressed before they take an NFL snap. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #223 and the room's #224 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 20% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Grover Stewart (age 23.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #192 (range #171-#213, wide band). Bust probability sits at 25% — manageable. Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 125 spots ahead of the room (board #192 vs consensus #317), and at a 25% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.