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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
AM
Al-Quadin Muhammad
EDGE · Miami (FL)
22.1 yo · 6'3" · 253 lb
DJ
Deatrich Wise Jr.
EDGE · Arkansas
22.8 yo · 6'5" · 274 lb
DH
Daeshon Hall
EDGE · Texas A&M
21.9 yo · 6'5" · 266 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Al-Quadin Muhammad
Predicted pick
#132
range #118–#146
Bust probability
20%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Deatrich Wise Jr.
Predicted pick
#89
range #58–#120
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#116
on 3 boards
Career arc
Franchise
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$11Mmodel
Daeshon Hall
Predicted pick
#155
range #113–#197
Bust probability
48%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#100
on 6 boards
Career arc
Franchise
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$8Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Al-Quadin Muhammad· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Deatrich Wise Jr.· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Daeshon Hall· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionAl-Quadin Muhammad0
  • AthleticismDaeshon Hall87
  • AgeDaeshon Hall100
  • ConsensusDeatrich Wise Jr.22
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Al-Quadin Muhammad50
  • Breakout ageAl-Quadin Muhammad50
  • WorkloadAl-Quadin Muhammad100
  • RAS × productionAl-Quadin Muhammad31

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Frank ClarkEDGE · Franchise→ shared byDeatrich Wise Jr.Daeshon Hall
  • Shane RayEDGE · Franchise→ shared byDeatrich Wise Jr.Daeshon Hall
Al-Quadin Muhammad
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Deatrich Wise Jr.
  • Frank Clarkshared
    EDGE · #63
    Franchise
  • Shaquille Riddick
    EDGE · #158
    TBD
  • Trey Flowers
    EDGE · #101
    Franchise
  • Nate Orchard
    EDGE · #51
    Franchise
  • Shane Rayshared
    EDGE · #23
    Franchise
Daeshon Hall
  • Frank Clarkshared
    EDGE · #63
    Franchise
  • Shane Rayshared
    EDGE · #23
    Franchise
  • Anthony Chickillo
    EDGE · #212
    Contributor
  • Geneo Grissom
    EDGE · #97
    Contributor
  • Danielle Hunter
    EDGE · #88
    Franchise

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Al-Quadin Muhammad
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #230; model has him #132 — a 98-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Deatrich Wise Jr.
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Frank Clark, Trey Flowers, Nate Orchard (+1 more). The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Daeshon Hall
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    7 boards have him at mean rank #81; model has him #155 — a 74-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Frank Clark, Shane Ray, Danielle Hunter. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Al-Quadin MuhammadDeatrich Wise Jr.Daeshon Hall· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Al-Quadin Muhammad

Draftanomics projects Al-Quadin Muhammad (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #132 (range #118-#146, wide band). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 98 spots ahead of the room (board #132 vs consensus #230), and at a 20% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Deatrich Wise Jr.

Draftanomics projects Deatrich Wise Jr. (age 22.8 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #89 (range #58-#120, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Frank Clark (Franchise), Shaquille Riddick, Trey Flowers (Franchise). Ceiling is Shane Ray (Franchise); floor is Shaquille Riddick. The call is a value lean: #89 against a consensus #107 is a 18-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.

Daeshon Hall

Draftanomics projects Daeshon Hall (age 21.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #155 (range #113-#197, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 48% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Frank Clark (Franchise), Shane Ray (Franchise), Anthony Chickillo (Contributor). Ceiling is Shane Ray (Franchise); floor is Anthony Chickillo (Contributor). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #81 and the model won't take him before #155 — a 74-spot markdown. A 48% bust probability backs the 74-spot markdown.