2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: 95-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by $24M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV and a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Marlon Mack (age 21.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #112 (range #83-#141, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Tevin Coleman (Franchise), Josh Robinson (Bust). Ceiling is Tevin Coleman (Franchise); floor is Jeremy Langford (Starter). School SP+ 9.8 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: David Cobb, Josh Robinson. Mixed signal from history. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #78 and the model won't take him before #112 — a 34-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Christian McCaffrey (age 20.9 at draft) as a first-round pick at #17 (range #1-#44, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Jeremy Langford (Starter), Tevin Coleman (Franchise). Ceiling is T.J. Yeldon (Franchise); floor is Jeremy Langford (Starter). PPA avg_all 0.263 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #17 sits within 3 spots of the room's #20 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.