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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (QB)
JD
Joshua Dobbs
QB · Tennessee
22.3 yo · 6'3" · 216 lb
CK
Chad Kelly
QB · Mississippi
23.1 yo · — · —
MT
Mitchell Trubisky
QB · North Carolina
22.7 yo · 6'2" · 222 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Joshua Dobbs
Predicted pick
#165
range #85–#241
Bust probability· rough estimate
22%
Consensus rank
#158
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Chad Kelly
Predicted pick
#250
range #113–#265
Bust probability· rough estimate
31%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Mitchell Trubisky
Predicted pick
#38
range #12–#142
Bust probability· rough estimate
16%
Consensus rank
#30
on 27 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$12Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Joshua Dobbs· QB
  • Chad Kelly· QB
  • Mitchell Trubisky· QB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJoshua Dobbs0
  • AthleticismJoshua Dobbs100
  • AgeJoshua Dobbs100
  • ConsensusMitchell Trubisky54
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Joshua Dobbs50
  • Breakout ageJoshua Dobbs50
  • WorkloadJoshua Dobbs50
  • RAS × productionJoshua Dobbs100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Joshua Dobbs
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Chad Kelly
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Mitchell Trubisky
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Joshua Dobbs
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Chad Kelly
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Mitchell Trubisky
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Joshua DobbsChad KellyMitchell Trubisky· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Joshua Dobbs

−0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.03 age; +0.03 charting yards after contact per att

Chad Kelly

−0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.04 age; −0.03 charting gap run block grade

Mitchell Trubisky

+0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.04 production trajectory; +0.04 boards with him top-50