2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: a bust risk 52 points lower. Reinforced by 37-pick gap on Draftanomics projection and $5M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Rayshawn Jenkins (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #182 (range #159-#205, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jaquiski Tartt (Franchise), Ibraheim Campbell (Starter), Clayton Geathers (Starter). Ceiling is Damarious Randall (Franchise); floor is Ibraheim Campbell (Starter). Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 21 spots below the room's consensus #161 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Treston Decoud (age 23.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #219 (range #180-#258, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 52% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jaquiski Tartt (Franchise), Derron Smith (Contributor), Ibraheim Campbell (Starter). Ceiling is Damarious Randall (Franchise); floor is Derron Smith (Contributor). Age 23.7 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a value lean: #219 against a consensus #245 is a 26-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with older prospect the tax on that edge.