2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: a bust risk 48 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Kendell Beckwith (age 22.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #163 (range #119-#207, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Stephone Anthony (Starter), Ramik Wilson (Starter), Hayes Pullard (Starter). Ceiling is Denzel Perryman (Franchise); floor is Damien Wilson (Contributor). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #94 and the model won't take him before #163 — a 69-spot markdown. The 69-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Daeshon Hall (age 21.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #155 (range #113-#197, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 48% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Frank Clark (Franchise), Shane Ray (Franchise), Anthony Chickillo (Contributor). Ceiling is Shane Ray (Franchise); floor is Anthony Chickillo (Contributor). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #81 and the model won't take him before #155 — a 74-spot markdown. A 48% bust probability backs the 74-spot markdown.