3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Lano Hill (age 21.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #105 (range #73-#137, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Landon Collins (Franchise), Adrian Amos (Franchise), Jordan Richards (Contributor). Ceiling is Landon Collins (Franchise); floor is Cedric Thompson. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 42 spots ahead of the room (board #105 vs consensus #146), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Rudy Ford (age 22.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #247 (range #233-#261, wide band). Bust probability sits at 12% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #134 and the model won't take him before #247 — a 113-spot markdown. The 113-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Marcus Williams (age 20.6 at draft) as a first-round pick at #26 (range #1-#56, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Adrian Amos (Franchise), Damarious Randall (Franchise), Cedric Thompson. Ceiling is Damarious Randall (Franchise); floor is Cedric Thompson. The call is a value lean: #26 against a consensus #55 is a 29-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.