3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects John Johnson (age 21.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #143 (range #109-#177, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Mykkele Thompson (Bust), Kyshoen Jarrett (Bust), Damarious Randall (Franchise). Ceiling is Damarious Randall (Franchise); floor is Adrian Amos (Franchise). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Mykkele Thompson, Kyshoen Jarrett, James Sample. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #88 and the model won't take him before #143 — a 55-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jabrill Peppers (age 21.6 at draft) as a first-round pick at #19 (range #1-#48, wide band). Bust probability sits at 5% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Adrian Amos (Franchise), Landon Collins (Franchise), Cedric Thompson. Ceiling is Landon Collins (Franchise); floor is Cedric Thompson. 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Mykkele Thompson, James Sample. Mixed signal from history. The call is a value lean: #19 against a consensus #32 is a 13-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group has bust risk the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Lano Hill (age 21.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #105 (range #73-#137, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Landon Collins (Franchise), Adrian Amos (Franchise), Jordan Richards (Contributor). Ceiling is Landon Collins (Franchise); floor is Cedric Thompson. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 42 spots ahead of the room (board #105 vs consensus #146), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.