2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: a bust risk 62 points lower. Reinforced by 47-pick gap on Draftanomics projection and a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects D'Onta Foreman (age 21.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #166 (range #132-#200, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 66% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Josh Robinson (Bust), Kenny Hilliard. Ceiling is Jeremy Langford (Starter); floor is Kenny Hilliard. Career trajectory in rushing yards: 74 → 681 → 2028. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: David Cobb, Josh Robinson. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #79 and the model won't take him before #166 — a 87-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Wayne Gallman (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #119 (range #77-#161, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: T.J. Yeldon (Franchise), Karlos Williams (Bust), Kenny Hilliard. Ceiling is T.J. Yeldon (Franchise); floor is Kenny Hilliard. 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Karlos Williams, David Cobb. Mixed signal from history. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 18 spots below the room's consensus #101 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.