3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Taywan Taylor (age 22.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #88 (range #30-#146, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Tyler Lockett (Franchise), Breshad Perriman (Starter), Amari Cooper (Franchise). Ceiling is Amari Cooper (Franchise); floor is Breshad Perriman (Starter). Career trajectory in receiving yards: 270 → 767 → 1467 → 1730. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #88 sits within 12 spots of the room's #76 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Corey Davis (age 22.3 at draft) as a first-round pick at #11 (range #1-#32, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Breshad Perriman (Starter), Nelson Agholor (Franchise), Jaelen Strong (Franchise). Ceiling is Nelson Agholor (Franchise); floor is Justin Hardy (Starter). School SP+ 11.5 (MID-AMERICAN). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #11 and the room's #13 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Zay Jones (age 22.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #100 (range #40-#160, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kevin White (Starter), Tre McBride (Contributor), Phillip Dorsett (Franchise). Ceiling is Phillip Dorsett (Franchise); floor is Tre McBride (Contributor). Career trajectory in receiving yards: 604 → 830 → 1099 → 1731. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. School SP+ rating -9.0 (well below FBS median of 0). College production may not translate against NFL-quality DBs/pass-rushers. Schedule rank #67 (1=hardest). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #57 and the model won't take him before #100 — a 43-spot markdown. The discount is earned — small-school competition leads the case against.