3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Obi Melifonwu (age 23.1 at draft) as a first-round pick at #28 (range #1-#56, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 40% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jaquiski Tartt (Franchise), Ibraheim Campbell (Starter), Damarious Randall (Franchise). Ceiling is Damarious Randall (Franchise); floor is Ibraheim Campbell (Starter). Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a value lean: #28 against a consensus #42 is a 14-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with older prospect the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Rayshawn Jenkins (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #182 (range #159-#205, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jaquiski Tartt (Franchise), Ibraheim Campbell (Starter), Clayton Geathers (Starter). Ceiling is Damarious Randall (Franchise); floor is Ibraheim Campbell (Starter). Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 21 spots below the room's consensus #161 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Josh Jones (age 22.6 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #68 (range #40-#96, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Damarious Randall (Franchise), Adrian Amos (Franchise), Ibraheim Campbell (Starter). Ceiling is Damarious Randall (Franchise); floor is Cedric Thompson. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #68 sits within 5 spots of the room's #73 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.