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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2017 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
JM
Joe Mixon
RB · Oklahoma
20.8 yo · — · —
DC
Dalvin Cook
RB · Florida St.
21.7 yo · 5'10" · 210 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Dalvin Cook over Joe Mixon.

Decisive factor: 42-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 8 points lower.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Joe Mixon
Predicted pick
#55
range #33–#92
Bust probability
19%
Consensus rank
#55
on 25 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$16Mmodel
Dalvin Cook
Predicted pick
#13
range #1–#56
Bust probability
11%
Consensus rank
#12
on 27 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$14Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Joe Mixon· RB / WR / TE
  • Dalvin Cook· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJoe Mixon41
  • AthleticismJoe Mixon33
  • AgeDalvin Cook79
  • ConsensusDalvin Cook74
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Joe Mixon50
  • Breakout ageJoe Mixon50
  • WorkloadJoe Mixon100
  • RAS × productionJoe Mixon50

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Joe Mixon
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Dalvin Cook
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Joe Mixon
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Dalvin Cook
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Joe MixonDalvin Cook· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Joe Mixon

+0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.04 boards with him top-50; +0.04 charting elusive

Dalvin Cook

+0.09 boards with him top-100; +0.09 scout consensus; +0.05 boards with him top-50