2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: a stronger historical comp arc. Reinforced by $8M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Marcus Williams (age 20.6 at draft) as a first-round pick at #26 (range #1-#56, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Adrian Amos (Franchise), Damarious Randall (Franchise), Cedric Thompson. Ceiling is Damarious Randall (Franchise); floor is Cedric Thompson. The call is a value lean: #26 against a consensus #55 is a 29-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.
Draftanomics projects Jabrill Peppers (age 21.6 at draft) as a first-round pick at #19 (range #1-#48, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Adrian Amos (Franchise), Landon Collins (Franchise), Cedric Thompson. Ceiling is Landon Collins (Franchise); floor is Cedric Thompson. 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Mykkele Thompson, James Sample. Mixed signal from history. The call is a value lean: #19 against a consensus #32 is a 13-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group has bust risk the tax on that edge.