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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2017 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
DC
Dalvin Cook
RB · Florida St.
21.7 yo · 5'10" · 210 lb
LF
Leonard Fournette
RB · LSU
22.3 yo · 6'0" · 240 lb
JM
Joe Mixon
RB · Oklahoma
20.8 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Dalvin Cook
Predicted pick
#13
range #1–#56
Bust probability
11%
Consensus rank
#12
on 27 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$14Mmodel
Leonard Fournette
Predicted pick
#5
range #3–#29
Bust probability
22%
Consensus rank
#9
on 27 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$10Mmodel
Joe Mixon
Predicted pick
#55
range #33–#92
Bust probability
19%
Consensus rank
#55
on 25 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$16Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Dalvin Cook· RB / WR / TE
  • Leonard Fournette· RB / WR / TE
  • Joe Mixon· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionDalvin Cook41
  • AthleticismDalvin Cook33
  • AgeDalvin Cook79
  • ConsensusLeonard Fournette93
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Dalvin Cook50
  • Breakout ageDalvin Cook50
  • WorkloadDalvin Cook100
  • RAS × productionDalvin Cook50

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Dalvin Cook
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Leonard Fournette
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Joe Mixon
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Dalvin Cook
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Leonard Fournette
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Joe Mixon
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Dalvin CookLeonard FournetteJoe Mixon· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Dalvin Cook

+0.09 boards with him top-100; +0.09 scout consensus; +0.05 boards with him top-50

Leonard Fournette

+0.12 scout consensus; +0.10 boards with him top-100; +0.05 boards with him top-50

Joe Mixon

+0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.04 boards with him top-50; +0.04 charting elusive