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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2017 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OLB)
TW
T.J. Watt
OLB · Wisconsin
22.5 yo · 6'4" · 252 lb
TB
Tyus Bowser
OLB · Houston
21.9 yo · 6'3" · 247 lb
CL
Carl Lawson
OLB · Auburn
21.8 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

T.J. Watt
Predicted pick
#76
range #20–#197
Bust probability
6%
Consensus rank
#42
on 24 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$25Mmodel
Tyus Bowser
Predicted pick
#66
range #22–#178
Bust probability
20%
Consensus rank
#69
on 24 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel
Carl Lawson
Predicted pick
#59
range #33–#163
Bust probability
15%
Consensus rank
#51
on 24 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$19Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • T.J. Watt· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Tyus Bowser· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Carl Lawson· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionT.J. Watt0
  • AthleticismTyus Bowser87
  • AgeTyus Bowser84
  • ConsensusCarl Lawson34
  • Per-play impact (PPA)T.J. Watt50
  • Breakout ageT.J. Watt50
  • WorkloadT.J. Watt100
  • RAS × productionT.J. Watt31

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
T.J. Watt
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Tyus Bowser
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Carl Lawson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

T.J. Watt
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Tyus Bowser
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Carl Lawson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
T.J. WattTyus BowserCarl Lawson· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

T.J. Watt

−0.06 charting: average depth of target allowed, career avg; +0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting fir career avg

Tyus Bowser

+0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 athleticism (combine); −0.03 charting catch rate allowed avg

Carl Lawson

+0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.03 boards with him top-50; −0.03 HS recruit rating