3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jabrill Peppers (age 21.6 at draft) as a first-round pick at #19 (range #1-#48, wide band). Bust probability sits at 5% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Adrian Amos (Franchise), Landon Collins (Franchise), Cedric Thompson. Ceiling is Landon Collins (Franchise); floor is Cedric Thompson. 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Mykkele Thompson, James Sample. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #19 sits within 8 spots of the room's #27 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 5% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Malik Hooker (age 21.1 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #4 (range #1-#36, wide band). Bust probability sits at 2% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Adrian Amos (Franchise), Landon Collins (Franchise), Jordan Richards (Contributor). Ceiling is Landon Collins (Franchise); floor is Cedric Thompson. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #4 and the room's #5 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 2% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Budda Baker (age 21.3 at draft) as a first-round pick at #25 (range #1-#54, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Landon Collins (Franchise), Adrian Amos (Franchise), Jordan Richards (Contributor). Ceiling is Landon Collins (Franchise); floor is Jordan Richards (Contributor). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: James Sample, Mykkele Thompson. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #25 sits within 9 spots of the room's #34 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 4% bust probability break ties on draft day.