2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: 35-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by $10M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Adoree' Jackson (age 21.6 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #62 (range #27-#97, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Ronald Darby (Franchise), Alex Carter (Bust), Jalen Collins (Starter). Ceiling is Ronald Darby (Franchise); floor is P.J. Williams (Starter). 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Alex Carter, Charles Gaines. Mixed signal from history. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #42 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Kevin King (age 22.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #97 (range #62-#132, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Ronald Darby (Franchise), Jalen Collins (Starter), Alex Carter (Bust). Ceiling is Ronald Darby (Franchise); floor is P.J. Williams (Starter). 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Alex Carter, Charles Gaines. Mixed signal from history. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #47 and the model won't take him before #97 — a 50-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.