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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
ST
Solomon Thomas
EDGE · Stanford
21.7 yo · 6'3" · 273 lb
MG
Myles Garrett
EDGE · Texas A&M
21.3 yo · 6'4" · 272 lb
TM
Takkarist McKinley
EDGE · UCLA
21.5 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Solomon Thomas
Predicted pick
#9
range #1–#26
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#3
on 27 boards
Career arc
Franchise
tier · 1st Round
2nd-deal AAV
$13Mmodel
Myles Garrett
Predicted pick
#6
range #1–#23
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#1
on 27 boards
Career arc
Franchise
tier · Blue Chip
2nd-deal AAV
$26Mmodel
Takkarist McKinley
Predicted pick
#21
range #1–#75
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#26
on 25 boards
Career arc
Franchise
tier · 1st Round
2nd-deal AAV
$9Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Solomon Thomas· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Myles Garrett· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Takkarist McKinley· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTakkarist McKinley59
  • AthleticismMyles Garrett100
  • AgeTakkarist McKinley82
  • ConsensusMyles Garrett100
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Solomon Thomas50
  • Breakout ageSolomon Thomas50
  • WorkloadSolomon Thomas100
  • RAS × productionSolomon Thomas31

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Danielle HunterEDGE · Franchise→ shared bySolomon ThomasMyles Garrett
  • Frank ClarkEDGE · Franchise→ shared bySolomon ThomasMyles Garrett
  • Trey FlowersEDGE · Franchise→ shared bySolomon ThomasMyles Garrett
  • Shane RayEDGE · Franchise→ shared bySolomon ThomasMyles Garrett
  • Owamagbe OdighizuwaEDGE · Starter→ shared bySolomon ThomasMyles Garrett
Solomon Thomas
  • Danielle Huntershared
    EDGE · #88
    Franchise
  • Frank Clarkshared
    EDGE · #63
    Franchise
  • Trey Flowersshared
    EDGE · #101
    Franchise
  • Shane Rayshared
    EDGE · #23
    Franchise
  • Owamagbe Odighizuwashared
    EDGE · #74
    Starter
Myles Garrett
  • Danielle Huntershared
    EDGE · #88
    Franchise
  • Frank Clarkshared
    EDGE · #63
    Franchise
  • Owamagbe Odighizuwashared
    EDGE · #74
    Starter
  • Trey Flowersshared
    EDGE · #101
    Franchise
  • Shane Rayshared
    EDGE · #23
    Franchise
Takkarist McKinley
  • Shaquille Riddick
    EDGE · #158
    TBD
  • Nate Orchard
    EDGE · #51
    Franchise
  • Za'Darius Smith
    EDGE · #122
    Franchise
  • Leonard Williams
    EDGE · #6
    Franchise
  • Brian Mihalik
    EDGE · #237
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Solomon Thomas
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Danielle Hunter, Frank Clark, Trey Flowers (+2 more). The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Myles Garrett
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Danielle Hunter, Frank Clark, Owamagbe Odighizuwa (+2 more). The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Takkarist McKinley
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Nate Orchard, Za'Darius Smith, Leonard Williams. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Solomon ThomasMyles GarrettTakkarist McKinley· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Solomon Thomas

Draftanomics projects Solomon Thomas (age 21.7 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #9 (range #1-#26, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Danielle Hunter (Franchise), Frank Clark (Franchise), Trey Flowers (Franchise). Ceiling is Shane Ray (Franchise); floor is Owamagbe Odighizuwa (Starter). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #9 sits within 3 spots of the room's #6 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.

Myles Garrett

Draftanomics projects Myles Garrett (age 21.3 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #6 (range #1-#23, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Danielle Hunter (Franchise), Frank Clark (Franchise), Owamagbe Odighizuwa (Starter). Ceiling is Shane Ray (Franchise); floor is Owamagbe Odighizuwa (Starter). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #6 sits within 5 spots of the room's #1 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.

Takkarist McKinley

Draftanomics projects Takkarist McKinley (age 21.5 at draft) as a first-round pick at #21 (range #1-#75, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Shaquille Riddick, Nate Orchard (Franchise), Za'Darius Smith (Franchise). Ceiling is Leonard Williams (Franchise); floor is Shaquille Riddick. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #21 sits within 8 spots of the room's #29 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.