2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: a bust risk 35 points lower. Reinforced by 22-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Chad Hansen (age 22.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #177 (range #140-#214, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 30% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jaelen Strong (Franchise), Jamison Crowder (Franchise), Stefon Diggs (Franchise). Ceiling is Jaelen Strong (Franchise); floor is Dezmin Lewis (Starter). Career trajectory in receiving yards: 28 → 249 → 1249. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Production concentrated in one season: best 1249 receiving yards vs 3-season mean 509. Limited multi-year tape — small sample of true production. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #94 and the model won't take him before #177 — a 83-spot markdown. The discount is earned — one-year wonder leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Rodney Adams (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #199 (range #158-#240, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Devin Funchess (Franchise), Kaelin Clay (Contributor), Dorial Green-Beckham (Starter). Ceiling is Devin Funchess (Franchise); floor is Kaelin Clay (Contributor). Career trajectory in receiving yards: 15 → 323 → 822 → 822. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Drafted #170 by MIN in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 104 spots ahead of the room (board #199 vs consensus #303) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.