3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Mason Schreck (age 23.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #248 (range #218-#278, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 63% — scary. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kennard Backman (Bust), James O'Shaughnessy (Contributor), Malcolm Johnson (Starter). Ceiling is Tyler Kroft (Starter); floor is James O'Shaughnessy (Contributor). Drafted #251 by CIN in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 420 spots ahead of the room (board #248 vs consensus #668) — but size the bet for the 63% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Adam Shaheen (age 23.3 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #73 (range #40-#106, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 26% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: James O'Shaughnessy (Contributor), A.J. Derby (Starter), MyCole Pruitt (Starter). Ceiling is Maxx Williams (Starter); floor is James O'Shaughnessy (Contributor). Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #73 sits within 9 spots of the room's #82 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 26% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Jeremy Sprinkle (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #212 (range #164-#260, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 25% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Tyler Kroft (Starter), Randall Telfer (Starter), Jesse James (Franchise). Ceiling is Jesse James (Franchise); floor is Rory Anderson. 40-yard dash of 4.69s — below-average separation speed for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #102 and the model won't take him before #212 — a 110-spot markdown. The discount is earned — te slow 40 (4.69s) leads the case against.