3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Matthew Dayes (age 21.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #144 (range #113-#175, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), David Johnson (Franchise), Josh Robinson (Bust). Ceiling is Tevin Coleman (Franchise); floor is Mike Davis (Starter). Career trajectory in rushing yards: 252 → 573 → 865 → 1166. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #144 sits within 4 spots of the room's #140 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 57% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Khalfani Muhammad (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #226 (range #193-#259, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 77% — scary. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), David Johnson (Franchise), Josh Robinson (Bust). Ceiling is Tevin Coleman (Franchise); floor is David Johnson (Franchise). Drafted #241 by TEN in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 256 spots ahead of the room (board #226 vs consensus #482) — but size the bet for the 77% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Brian Hill (age 21.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #161 (range #128-#194, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Josh Robinson (Bust), David Johnson (Franchise). Ceiling is Tevin Coleman (Franchise); floor is David Johnson (Franchise). Career trajectory in rushing yards: 796 → 1631 → 1860. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: David Cobb, Josh Robinson. Mixed signal from history. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 27 spots below the room's consensus #134 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.