3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Noah Brown (age 21.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #197 (range #157-#237, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Keith Mumphery (Starter), Darren Waller (Contributor), Dorial Green-Beckham (Starter). Ceiling is Dorial Green-Beckham (Starter); floor is Darren Waller (Contributor). Position-cohort z-score on production composite is -1.72 — well below the skill average. Raw box-score output didn't keep pace with peers. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #154 and the model won't take him before #197 — a 44-spot markdown. The discount is earned — below-cohort college production leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Malachi Dupre (age 21.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #150 (range #98-#202, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Keith Mumphery (Starter), Darren Waller (Contributor), Dorial Green-Beckham (Starter). Ceiling is DeVante Parker (Franchise); floor is Darren Waller (Contributor). Drafted #247 by GNB in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #93 and the model won't take him before #150 — a 57-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Curtis Samuel (age 20.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #92 (range #47-#137, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Dorial Green-Beckham (Starter), Devin Funchess (Franchise), Darren Waller (Contributor). Ceiling is Devin Funchess (Franchise); floor is Darren Waller (Contributor). Career trajectory in receiving yards: 95 → 289 → 865. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Production concentrated in one season: best 865 receiving yards vs 3-season mean 416. Limited multi-year tape — small sample of true production. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #57 and the model won't take him before #92 — a 35-spot markdown. The discount is earned — one-year wonder leads the case against.