2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: 84-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 66 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects David Moore (age 22.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #151 (range #141-#161, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 354 spots ahead of the room (board #151 vs consensus #505), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects DeAngelo Yancey (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #235 (range #192-#278, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 66% — scary. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Dezmin Lewis (Starter), JJ Nelson (Franchise), Jaelen Strong (Franchise). Ceiling is Jaelen Strong (Franchise); floor is Tre McBride (Contributor). Drafted #175 by GNB in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #194 and the model won't take him before #235 — a 41-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.