3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Sam Tevi as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #93 (range #45-#141, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 58% — elevated. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Jamon Brown, Rob Havenstein, Andrew Donnal. Ceiling is Andrus Peat; floor is Jake Rodgers. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 123 spots ahead of the room (board #93 vs consensus #216) — but size the bet for the 58% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Julién Davenport as a mid-round flyer at #133 (range #112-#154, wide band). Bust probability sits at 67% — scary. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #133 sits within 5 spots of the room's #128 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 67% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Kyle Fuller as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #83 (range #62-#104, wide band). Bust probability sits at 16% — manageable. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Jamon Brown, Jeremiah Poutasi, Rob Havenstein. Ceiling is Laken Tomlinson; floor is Jon Feliciano. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 115 spots ahead of the room (board #83 vs consensus #198), and at a 16% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.