3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Anthony Walker (age 21.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #65 (range #18-#112, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Max Valles, David Mayo (Contributor), Bud Dupree (Franchise). Ceiling is Bud Dupree (Franchise); floor is Max Valles. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a value lean: #65 against a consensus #93 is a 28-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group has bust risk the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Elijah Lee (age 21.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #124 (range #122-#126, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 198 spots ahead of the room (board #124 vs consensus #322), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Jayon Brown (age 22.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #131 (range #96-#166, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 7% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Nate Orchard (Franchise), Shaquille Riddick, Bud Dupree (Franchise). Ceiling is Bud Dupree (Franchise); floor is Shaquille Riddick. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 306 spots ahead of the room (board #131 vs consensus #437), and at a 7% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.