3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Donnel Pumphrey (age 22.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #148 (range #118-#178, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 66% — scary. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Josh Robinson (Bust), Jeremy Langford (Starter). Ceiling is Jay Ajayi (Franchise); floor is Marcus Murphy (Contributor). Drafted #132 by PHI in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #106 and the model won't take him before #148 — a 42-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Marlon Mack (age 21.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #112 (range #83-#141, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Tevin Coleman (Franchise), Josh Robinson (Bust). Ceiling is Tevin Coleman (Franchise); floor is Jeremy Langford (Starter). School SP+ 9.8 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: David Cobb, Josh Robinson. Mixed signal from history. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #78 and the model won't take him before #112 — a 34-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects James Conner (age 22.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #233 (range #186-#280, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Josh Robinson (Bust), Jeremy Langford (Starter). Ceiling is T.J. Yeldon (Franchise); floor is Kenny Hilliard. 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: David Cobb, Josh Robinson. Mixed signal from history. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #107 and the model won't take him before #233 — a 126-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.