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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2017 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
TC
Taco Charlton
EDGE · Michigan
22.5 yo · 6'6" · 277 lb
JA
Jonathan Allen
EDGE · Alabama
22.3 yo · — · —
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Jonathan Allen over Taco Charlton.

Decisive factor: $26M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV. Reinforced by 33-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Taco Charlton
Predicted pick
#34
range #8–#138
Bust probability
3%
Consensus rank
#21
on 27 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Jonathan Allen
Predicted pick
#1
range #1–#25
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#6
on 27 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$29Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Taco Charlton· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Jonathan Allen· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTaco Charlton0
  • AthleticismTaco Charlton36
  • AgeTaco Charlton81
  • ConsensusJonathan Allen100
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Taco Charlton50
  • Breakout ageTaco Charlton50
  • WorkloadTaco Charlton100
  • RAS × productionTaco Charlton31

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Taco Charlton
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Jonathan Allen
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Taco Charlton
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Jonathan Allen
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Taco CharltonJonathan Allen· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Taco Charlton

+0.08 boards with him top-100; +0.05 scout consensus; +0.04 boards with him top-50

Jonathan Allen

+0.11 scout consensus; +0.10 boards with him top-100; +0.05 boards with him top-50