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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
IF
Isaiah Ford
WR · Virginia Tech
21.2 yo · 6'1" · 194 lb
AD
Amara Darboh
WR · Michigan
23.2 yo · 6'2" · 214 lb
CS
Curtis Samuel
WR · Ohio St.
20.7 yo · 5'11" · 196 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Isaiah Ford
Predicted pick
#171
range #58–#255
Bust probability
5%
Consensus rank
#73
on 7 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Amara Darboh
Predicted pick
#167
range #54–#251
Bust probability
12%
Consensus rank
#107
on 4 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Curtis Samuel
Predicted pick
#92
range #36–#213
Bust probability
1%
Consensus rank
#58
on 21 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$14Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Isaiah Ford· RB / WR / TE
  • Amara Darboh· RB / WR / TE
  • Curtis Samuel· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionIsaiah Ford41
  • AthleticismIsaiah Ford33
  • AgeIsaiah Ford90
  • ConsensusAmara Darboh11
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Isaiah Ford50
  • Breakout ageIsaiah Ford50
  • WorkloadIsaiah Ford100
  • RAS × productionIsaiah Ford50

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Isaiah Ford
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Amara Darboh
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Curtis Samuel
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Isaiah Ford
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Amara Darboh
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Curtis Samuel
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Isaiah FordAmara DarbohCurtis Samuel· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Isaiah Ford

+0.03 charting: yards per route run from the slot, best season; +0.02 age; −0.02 Power-5 production share

Amara Darboh

−0.05 Power-5 production share; −0.04 age; −0.03 boards with him top-100

Curtis Samuel

+0.08 boards with him top-100; −0.04 production trajectory; −0.03 charting total career snaps