3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Isaiah Ford (age 21.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #171 (range #140-#202, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Dorial Green-Beckham (Starter), Jamison Crowder (Franchise), Stefon Diggs (Franchise). Ceiling is Nelson Agholor (Franchise); floor is Dorial Green-Beckham (Starter). Drafted #237 by MIA in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #85 and the model won't take him before #171 — a 86-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Corey Davis (age 22.3 at draft) as a first-round pick at #11 (range #1-#32, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Breshad Perriman (Starter), Nelson Agholor (Franchise), Jaelen Strong (Franchise). Ceiling is Nelson Agholor (Franchise); floor is Justin Hardy (Starter). School SP+ 11.5 (MID-AMERICAN). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #11 and the room's #13 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Carlos Henderson (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #64 (range #43-#85, wide band). Bust probability sits at 66% — scary. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jaelen Strong (Franchise), Breshad Perriman (Starter), Justin Hardy (Starter). Ceiling is Nelson Agholor (Franchise); floor is Justin Hardy (Starter). Career trajectory in receiving yards: 569 → 774 → 1535. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Drafted #82 by DEN in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a value lean: #64 against a consensus #81 is a 17-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with missed entire rookie season the tax on that edge.