3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Leon McQuay (age 22.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #146 (range #106-#186, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 16% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Mykkele Thompson (Bust), James Sample (Bust), Kyshoen Jarrett (Bust). Ceiling is Jordan Richards (Contributor); floor is Gerod Holliman. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Mykkele Thompson, James Sample, Kyshoen Jarrett. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #146 stands alone — and with bust risk at 16%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Montae Nicholson (age 21.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #101 (range #71-#131, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 9% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Adrian Amos (Franchise), Damarious Randall (Franchise), Cedric Thompson. Ceiling is Damarious Randall (Franchise); floor is Cedric Thompson. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #101 stands alone — and with bust risk at 9%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Rudy Ford (age 22.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #247 (range #233-#261, wide band). Bust probability sits at 9% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #247 stands alone — and with bust risk at 9%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.