3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Isaac Asiata as a Day 2 pick at #47 (range #1-#96, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Jeremiah Poutasi, Laken Tomlinson, Trent Brown. Ceiling is Laken Tomlinson; floor is Trent Brown. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 45 spots ahead of the room (board #47 vs consensus #92), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Nico Siragusa as a first-round pick at #20 (range #1-#69, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 63% — scary. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Mark Glowinski, Jeremiah Poutasi, Trent Brown. Ceiling is Laken Tomlinson; floor is Trent Brown. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 73 spots ahead of the room (board #20 vs consensus #93) — but size the bet for the 63% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Dion Dawkins as a Day 2 pick at #36 (range #1-#85, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Mark Glowinski, Jeremiah Poutasi, Trent Brown. Ceiling is Laken Tomlinson; floor is Trent Brown. School SP+ 11.9 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. The call is a value lean: #36 against a consensus #61 is a 25-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.