3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects D.J. Jones (age 22.3 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #77 (range #31-#123, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Darius Philon (Franchise), Arik Armstead (Franchise), Angelo Blackson (Starter). Ceiling is Danny Shelton (Franchise); floor is Angelo Blackson (Starter). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 85 spots ahead of the room (board #77 vs consensus #162), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Eddie Vanderdoes (age 22.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #110 (range #67-#153, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 55% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Michael Bennett (Starter), Gabe Wright (Franchise), Danny Shelton (Franchise). Ceiling is Danny Shelton (Franchise); floor is Michael Bennett (Starter). Position-cohort z-score on production composite is -1.80 — well below the front7 average. Raw box-score output didn't keep pace with peers. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #110 sits within 8 spots of the room's #102 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 55% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Isaac Rochell (age 22.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #200 (range #158-#242, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 3% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Michael Bennett (Starter), Gabe Wright (Franchise), Angelo Blackson (Starter). Ceiling is Arik Armstead (Franchise); floor is Michael Bennett (Starter). School SP+ 15.7 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 19 spots below the room's consensus #181 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — below-cohort college production leads the case against.