3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects D.J. Jones (age 22.3 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #77 (range #31-#123, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Darius Philon (Franchise), Arik Armstead (Franchise), Angelo Blackson (Starter). Ceiling is Danny Shelton (Franchise); floor is Angelo Blackson (Starter). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 85 spots ahead of the room (board #77 vs consensus #162), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Joey Ivie (age 22.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #210 (range #171-#249, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Arik Armstead (Franchise), Darius Philon (Franchise), Angelo Blackson (Starter). Ceiling is Arik Armstead (Franchise); floor is Angelo Blackson (Starter). Drafted #228 by DAL in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 326 spots ahead of the room (board #210 vs consensus #536) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Grover Stewart (age 23.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #192 (range #171-#213, wide band). Bust probability sits at 25% — manageable. Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 125 spots ahead of the room (board #192 vs consensus #317), and at a 25% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.