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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
AJ
Aaron Jones
RB · Texas-El Paso
22.4 yo · 5'9" · 208 lb
KH
Kareem Hunt
RB · Toledo
21.7 yo · 5'10" · 216 lb
Tiebreaker
Medium confidence
Take Kareem Hunt over Aaron Jones.

Decisive factor: 188-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Aaron Jones
Predicted pick
#240
range #208–#272
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Franchise
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$18Mmodel
Kareem Hunt
Predicted pick
#52
range #23–#81
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#131
on 19 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$14Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Aaron Jones· RB / WR / TE
  • Kareem Hunt· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionAaron Jones41
  • AthleticismAaron Jones33
  • AgeKareem Hunt80
  • ConsensusAaron Jones6
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Aaron Jones50
  • Breakout ageAaron Jones50
  • WorkloadAaron Jones100
  • RAS × productionAaron Jones50

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Tevin ColemanRB · Franchise→ shared byAaron JonesKareem Hunt
  • Josh RobinsonRB · Bust→ shared byAaron JonesKareem Hunt
  • David CobbRB · Bust→ shared byAaron JonesKareem Hunt
  • Jay AjayiRB · Franchise→ shared byAaron JonesKareem Hunt
Aaron Jones
  • Tevin Colemanshared
    RB · #73
    Franchise
  • Josh Robinsonshared
    RB · #205
    Bust
  • David Cobbshared
    RB · #138
    Bust
  • Duke Johnson
    RB · #77
    Franchise
  • Jay Ajayishared
    RB · #149
    Franchise
Kareem Hunt
  • David Cobbshared
    RB · #138
    Bust
  • Josh Robinsonshared
    RB · #205
    Bust
  • Jeremy Langford
    RB · #106
    Starter
  • Tevin Colemanshared
    RB · #73
    Franchise
  • Jay Ajayishared
    RB · #149
    Franchise

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Aaron Jones
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #300; model has him #240 — a 60-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group has bust risk
    2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Josh Robinson, David Cobb. Mixed signal from history.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.286 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
  • Promising comp group
    3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson, Jay Ajayi.
Kareem Hunt
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    20 boards place him at mean rank #88; model has him #52 — a 36-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group has bust risk
    2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: David Cobb, Josh Robinson. Mixed signal from history.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.283 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
  • Promising comp group
    3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: Jeremy Langford, Tevin Coleman, Jay Ajayi.
  • Mid-major standout
    School SP+ 12.3 (MID-AMERICAN). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Aaron JonesKareem Hunt· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Aaron Jones

Draftanomics projects Aaron Jones (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #240 (range #208-#272, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Tevin Coleman (Franchise), Josh Robinson (Bust), David Cobb (Bust). Ceiling is Tevin Coleman (Franchise); floor is Jay Ajayi (Franchise). 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Josh Robinson, David Cobb. Mixed signal from history. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 60 spots ahead of the room (board #240 vs consensus #300), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Kareem Hunt

Draftanomics projects Kareem Hunt (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #52 (range #23-#81, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Josh Robinson (Bust), Jeremy Langford (Starter). Ceiling is Tevin Coleman (Franchise); floor is Jeremy Langford (Starter). School SP+ 12.3 (MID-AMERICAN). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: David Cobb, Josh Robinson. Mixed signal from history. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 36 spots ahead of the room (board #52 vs consensus #88), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.