3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects George Kittle (age 23.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #218 (range #201-#235, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Malcolm Johnson (Starter), Kennard Backman (Bust), A.J. Derby (Starter). Ceiling is Jesse James (Franchise); floor is A.J. Derby (Starter). Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #85 and the model won't take him before #218 — a 133-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jeremy Sprinkle (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #212 (range #164-#260, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Tyler Kroft (Starter), Randall Telfer (Starter), Jesse James (Franchise). Ceiling is Jesse James (Franchise); floor is Rory Anderson. 40-yard dash of 4.69s — below-average separation speed for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #102 and the model won't take him before #212 — a 110-spot markdown. The discount is earned — te slow 40 (4.69s) leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Adam Shaheen (age 23.3 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #73 (range #40-#106, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: James O'Shaughnessy (Contributor), A.J. Derby (Starter), MyCole Pruitt (Starter). Ceiling is Maxx Williams (Starter); floor is James O'Shaughnessy (Contributor). Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #73 sits within 9 spots of the room's #82 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.