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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2017 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
CS
Curtis Samuel
WR · Ohio St.
20.7 yo · 5'11" · 196 lb
RS
Ryan Switzer
WR · North Carolina
22.5 yo · 5'8" · 181 lb
IF
Isaiah Ford
WR · Virginia Tech
21.2 yo · 6'1" · 194 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Curtis Samuel
Predicted pick
#92
range #36–#213
Bust probability
1%
Consensus rank
#58
on 21 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$14Mmodel
Ryan Switzer
Predicted pick
#241
range #85–#240
Bust probability
33%
Consensus rank
#83
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Isaiah Ford
Predicted pick
#171
range #58–#255
Bust probability
5%
Consensus rank
#73
on 7 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Curtis Samuel· RB / WR / TE
  • Ryan Switzer· RB / WR / TE
  • Isaiah Ford· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionCurtis Samuel41
  • AthleticismCurtis Samuel33
  • AgeIsaiah Ford90
  • ConsensusIsaiah Ford10
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Curtis Samuel50
  • Breakout ageCurtis Samuel50
  • WorkloadCurtis Samuel100
  • RAS × productionCurtis Samuel50

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Curtis Samuel
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Ryan Switzer
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Isaiah Ford
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Curtis Samuel
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Ryan Switzer
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Isaiah Ford
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Curtis SamuelRyan SwitzerIsaiah Ford· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Curtis Samuel

+0.08 boards with him top-100; −0.04 production trajectory; −0.03 charting total career snaps

Ryan Switzer

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 charting total career snaps; −0.02 scout consensus

Isaiah Ford

+0.03 charting: yards per route run from the slot, best season; +0.02 age; −0.02 Power-5 production share