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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
WF
Will Fuller
WR · Notre Dame
22.0 yo · 6'0" · 186 lb
TB
Tyler Boyd
WR · Pittsburgh
21.4 yo · 6'1" · 197 lb
MT
Mike Thomas
WR · Southern Miss
21.7 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Will Fuller
Predicted pick
#67
range #20–#185
Bust probability
5%
Consensus rank
#51
on 17 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$12Mmodel
Tyler Boyd
Predicted pick
#122
range #42–#230
Bust probability
12%
Consensus rank
#61
on 14 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$15Mmodel
Mike Thomas
Predicted pick
#148
range #45–#193
Bust probability
16%
Consensus rank
#125
on 2 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Will Fuller· RB / WR / TE
  • Tyler Boyd· RB / WR / TE
  • Mike Thomas· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionWill Fuller0
  • AthleticismWill Fuller45
  • AgeMike Thomas91
  • ConsensusWill Fuller47
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Will Fuller50
  • Breakout ageWill Fuller50
  • WorkloadWill Fuller100
  • RAS × productionWill Fuller0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Will Fuller
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Tyler Boyd
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Mike Thomas
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Will Fuller
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Tyler Boyd
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Mike Thomas
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Will FullerTyler BoydMike Thomas· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Will Fuller

+0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting total career snaps; +0.03 charting gap run block grade

Tyler Boyd

−0.04 charting total career snaps; +0.03 boards with him top-100; −0.03 Power-5 production share

Mike Thomas

−0.05 charting total career snaps; −0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.03 age