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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
PC
Pharoh Cooper
WR · South Carolina
21.1 yo · 5'11" · 203 lb
TS
Tajae Sharpe
WR · Massachusetts
21.3 yo · 6'2" · 194 lb
KL
Kenny Lawler
WR · California
21.8 yo · 6'2" · 203 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Pharoh Cooper
Predicted pick
#167
range #165–#169
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#162
on 11 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Tajae Sharpe
Predicted pick
#162
range #160–#164
Bust probability
11%
Consensus rank
#159
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Kenny Lawler
Predicted pick
#212
range #210–#214
Bust probability
70%
Consensus rank
#124
on 5 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Pharoh Cooper· RB / WR / TE
  • Tajae Sharpe· RB / WR / TE
  • Kenny Lawler· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionPharoh Cooper0
  • AthleticismPharoh Cooper45
  • AgeKenny Lawler91
  • ConsensusTajae Sharpe27
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Pharoh Cooper50
  • Breakout agePharoh Cooper50
  • WorkloadPharoh Cooper100
  • RAS × productionPharoh Cooper0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Pharoh Cooper
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Tajae Sharpe
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Kenny Lawler
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Pharoh Cooper
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    12 boards have him at mean rank #94; model has him #167 — a 73-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Tajae Sharpe
Risks
  • Small-school competition
    School SP+ rating -9.5 (well below FBS median of 0). College production may not translate against NFL-quality DBs/pass-rushers. Schedule rank #102 (1=hardest).
Opportunities
  • Breakout production arc
    Career trajectory in receiving yards: 206 → 680 → 1281 → 1319. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league.
Kenny Lawler
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #243 by SEA in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    6 boards have him at mean rank #89; model has him #212 — a 123-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Pharoh CooperTajae SharpeKenny Lawler· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Pharoh Cooper

Draftanomics projects Pharoh Cooper (age 21.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #167 (range #165-#169, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #94 and the model won't take him before #167 — a 73-spot markdown. The 73-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.

Tajae Sharpe

Draftanomics projects Tajae Sharpe (age 21.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #162 (range #160-#164, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 11% — low. Career trajectory in receiving yards: 206 → 680 → 1281 → 1319. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. School SP+ rating -9.5 (well below FBS median of 0). College production may not translate against NFL-quality DBs/pass-rushers. Schedule rank #102 (1=hardest). The call is a lean fade: the model sits 25 spots below the room's consensus #137 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — small-school competition leads the case against.

Kenny Lawler

Draftanomics projects Kenny Lawler (age 21.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #212 (range #210-#214, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 70% — scary. Drafted #243 by SEA in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #89 and the model won't take him before #212 — a 123-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.