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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (QB)
JG
Jared Goff
QB · California
21.5 yo · 6'4" · 215 lb
CW
Carson Wentz
QB · North Dakota St.
23.3 yo · — · —
CC
Connor Cook
QB · Michigan St.
23.2 yo · 6'4" · 217 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Jared Goff
Predicted pick
#27
range #9–#70
Bust probability· rough estimate
21%
Consensus rank
#9
on 20 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$44Mmodel
Carson Wentz
Predicted pick
#13
range #1–#56
Bust probability· rough estimate
16%
Consensus rank
#16
on 20 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$46Mmodel
Connor Cook
Predicted pick
#185
range #44–#228
Bust probability· rough estimate
26%
Consensus rank
#55
on 16 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Jared Goff· QB
  • Carson Wentz· QB
  • Connor Cook· QB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJared Goff0
  • AthleticismJared Goff43
  • AgeJared Goff81
  • ConsensusJared Goff100
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Jared Goff50
  • Breakout ageJared Goff50
  • WorkloadJared Goff50
  • RAS × productionJared Goff0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Jared Goff
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Carson Wentz
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Connor Cook
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Jared Goff
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Carson Wentz
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Connor Cook
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Jared GoffCarson WentzConnor Cook· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Jared Goff

+0.07 scout consensus; +0.07 boards with him top-100; +0.05 charting pass grade max

Carson Wentz

+0.09 boards with him top-100; +0.06 scout consensus; −0.04 age

Connor Cook

+0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting total career snaps; −0.03 age