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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
SL
Shaq Lawson
EDGE · Clemson
21.9 yo · 6'3" · 269 lb
JB
Joey Bosa
EDGE · Ohio St.
20.8 yo · 6'5" · 269 lb
KC
Kamalei Correa
EDGE · Boise St.
22.0 yo · 6'3" · 243 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Shaq Lawson
Predicted pick
#31
range #13–#74
Bust probability
3%
Consensus rank
#7
on 20 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$14Mmodel
Joey Bosa
Predicted pick
#8
range #1–#52
Bust probability
2%
Consensus rank
#1
on 20 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$34Mmodel
Kamalei Correa
Predicted pick
#103
range #47–#224
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#75
on 13 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Shaq Lawson· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Joey Bosa· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Kamalei Correa· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionShaq Lawson50
  • AthleticismShaq Lawson76
  • AgeKamalei Correa85
  • ConsensusShaq Lawson99
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Shaq Lawson50
  • Breakout ageShaq Lawson50
  • WorkloadShaq Lawson50
  • RAS × productionShaq Lawson100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Shaq Lawson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Joey Bosa
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Kamalei Correa
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Shaq Lawson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Joey Bosa
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Kamalei Correa
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Shaq LawsonJoey BosaKamalei Correa· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Shaq Lawson

+0.07 scout consensus; +0.07 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting: average depth of target allowed, career avg

Joey Bosa

+0.07 boards with him top-100; +0.07 scout consensus; −0.04 charting total career snaps

Kamalei Correa

−0.06 charting: average depth of target allowed, career avg; +0.05 charting coverage grade career avg; −0.04 charting total career snaps